Bitcoin Charts and Market Cycles Signal 15% Rally Toward $138K

     

Weekly trends and ETF inflows suggest further upside as BTC nears price discovery

Bitcoin appears set for a fresh leg higher, with historical market cycles and onchain indicators pointing toward a potential move to $138,000 in the coming weeks. The cryptocurrency posted its largest weekly gain since early May — up 8.74% — and closed its highest-ever seven-day candle at $119,310.

BTC reached a new all-time high of $123,100 on Binance in early Monday trading. Onchain data shows that while price momentum is strong, retail FOMO is still absent, suggesting there’s room for growth.

Short-term holder (STH) metrics also support the bullish outlook. The current Net Asset Value (NAV) premium is at 16%, indicating moderate sentiment. Historically, this zone precedes major rallies and remains far below the 30–35% “overheated” levels often seen at local tops.

Glassnode data shows Bitcoin spot trading volumes rose 50% over the past week, though they remain 23% below the yearly average — reinforcing the idea that market enthusiasm is rising, but not yet peaking.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs show strong institutional momentum

Spot BTC ETFs recorded $1.18 billion in inflows last Thursday — the second-largest single-day influx since their launch. This sudden increase in capital has driven BTC higher while signaling a deeper structural shift in investor sentiment.

According to Ecoinometrics, the ETF flow regime has shifted from a neutral to a “strong buy” signal, historically a reliable indicator of sustained uptrends.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which compares BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance, has stayed above zero for the longest stretch in this cycle, highlighting consistent demand from U.S. institutions and retail. This metric last showed similar strength in early 2023.

Price history points to $132K–$138K short-term target

Bitcoin’s recent breakout above its previous all-time high of $111,800 fits the pattern seen in prior bull cycles. In 2020, BTC surged 167% after surpassing its 2017 high. In late 2024, it gained 49% after reclaiming $69,000.

This time, analysts expect a more modest 10–15% gain from the $120,000 level, with a short-term price target between $132,000 and $138,000. The trend aligns with the historical pattern of diminishing returns during each cycle breakout.

Given current momentum and historical pacing, Bitcoin could reach these levels within one to two weeks before facing consolidation or correction.