Pantera’s Bear Market Call Hits 2025 Bitcoin Price Target, Silencing Cycle Skeptics

     

Pantera Capital’s 2022 forecast for Bitcoin’s August 11, 2025 price proved uncannily accurate, reinforcing the influence of the four-year halving cycle despite growing institutional presence and doubts about its relevance.

Pantera Capital’s strict adherence to Bitcoin’s halving cycle has paid off – literally. In November 2022, as Bitcoin was approaching its market bottom, CEO Dan Morehead projected BTC would reach $117,482 by August 11, 2025.

That forecast came from an analysis of historical halving rallies, showing diminishing returns after each four-year epoch. Factoring in the typical time from market bottoms to post-halving peaks, Pantera placed its target just under $118K.

On August 11, 2025, Bitcoin closed above $119,000, according to Coin Metrics data cited by CNBC – just 1.3% away from Pantera’s prediction.

 

An excerpt from Dan Morehead’s May 2024 Blockchain Letter, where he references the firm’s Bitcoin price forecast from 2022. Source: Pantera Capital
An excerpt from Dan Morehead’s May 2024 Blockchain Letter, where he references the firm’s Bitcoin price forecast from 2022. Source: Pantera Capital

 

At the time of the forecast, Bitcoin was sliding toward its November 21, 2022 cycle low of under $16,000, according to Bitbo. Since then, BTC has surged more than 660%, now trading near $120,000.

The rally reinforces the reliability of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle – a pattern of post-halving rallies, cycle peaks, corrections, and accumulation phases – also tracked by analysts like Bob Loukas, who identified the start of the current cycle in January 2023, less than two months after the bottom.

 

Source: Bob Loukas
Source: Bob Loukas

 

Will Institutional Adoption Rewrite the Bitcoin Cycle Playbook?

Every halving cycle brings claims that “this time is different,” but the argument is stronger now than ever. Bitcoin has never been this institutionalized – with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporations holding millions of BTC.

Since launching in January 2024, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the most successful ETF debut in history, now holding 7.1% of the total Bitcoin supply – around 1.491 million BTC, per Bitbo data. Public and private companies add another 1.36 million BTC to the tally.

 

Source: Jason Williams
Source: Jason Williams

 

Investor Jason Williams cites the rise of Bitcoin treasury-holding companies as a reason the four-year cycle could be over. Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard echoed the sentiment, noting:

“Halvings are immaterial to trading float. 95% of BTC have been mined. Supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs being added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.”

Whether institutional dominance will erode the halving cycle’s predictive power remains an open question – but for now, Pantera’s 2022 call has given cycle theory a major credibility boost.

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