Fidelity Predicts Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Could Reach 8.3M by 2032

     

Long-term holders and corporate treasuries may lock up 6M BTC by 2025, reducing market liquidity

Asset management giant Fidelity projects that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply could reach 8.3 million BTC by 2032, representing 42% of the circulating supply, as long-term holders and corporate treasuries continue to accumulate.

In its latest report, Fidelity identified two groups driving this trend: long-term holders who have not moved Bitcoin in at least seven years and publicly traded companies holding over 1,000 BTC. Both cohorts have shown consistent growth in their holdings, with no sustained declines since 2016 for long-term holders.

Fidelity estimates this combined group will hold more than six million BTC by the end of 2025 – about 28% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Public companies currently hold over 969,000 BTC, equivalent to 4.61% of supply, according to Bitbo data.

42% of Bitcoin supply projected to become illiquid

Fidelity forecasts that nearly 8.3 million BTC will be considered illiquid by Q2 2032 if accumulation continues at the same pace. This calculation assumes wallets holding Bitcoin for seven years or more will maintain their growth trajectory.

“At the close of Q2 2025, Bitcoin’s circulating supply stood at roughly 19.8 million. Of that, we estimate nearly 42% – or over 8.3 million Bitcoin – will be illiquid by Q2 2032,” the report said.

Whale sell-offs pose uncertainty

Despite the tightening supply trend, Fidelity noted risks remain. The two cohorts currently hold Bitcoin worth $628 billion at an average price of $107,700 – double last year’s valuation.

Recent whale activity raises concerns. Large holders have sold nearly $12.7 billion worth of BTC over the past 30 days, marking the biggest sell-off since mid-2022. This selling pressure coincided with a 2% drop in Bitcoin’s price, according to CoinGecko.