Analysts Split on ‘Uptober’ Hype as Bitcoin Slides to Two-Week Low

     

Historic October rallies face doubts after sharp market pullback

Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in nearly two weeks on Monday, raising doubts over whether October – traditionally one of the strongest months for the asset – will deliver another rally.

Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted gains in 10 out of 12 Octobers, earning the nickname “Uptober.” The asset hasn’t seen an October loss since 2018, when it dipped 3.8%. In previous bull market years, such as 2017 and 2021, it surged by 48% and 40% respectively.

A repeat of those rallies in 2025 could push Bitcoin toward $165,000 from its current price levels. Still, recent price action has left some traders skeptical.

Bulls point to Fed cuts and liquidity boost

Optimists say the conditions are in place for another October surge. Kyle Chassé highlighted a 92% probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut next month, arguing that added liquidity could fuel crypto markets.

Pseudonymous analyst “Sykodelic” also predicted a final dip before a breakout, saying Bitcoin could bottom around $112,500 before moving to new highs.

Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes doubled down on his belief that crypto markets will enter “up only mode” once the US Treasury completes its $850 billion General Account target.

Skeptics warn of muted upside

Others caution against overconfidence. Augustine Fan of SignalPlus said that low implied volatility, weaker inflows, and persistent profit-taking could cap rallies.

BTSE COO Jeff Mei added that macro uncertainty and a relatively stable September reduce the likelihood of a major “Uptober” rally. However, he noted that aggressive Fed intervention could shift momentum.

Market downturn sparks fresh caution

Crypto markets shed $80 billion in value on Monday as Bitcoin slipped to $114,270, its lowest price in 12 days. Ether also fell more than 4%, briefly dropping under $4,300 in its sharpest two-week decline.

The sell-off has left analysts split: some see it as a healthy correction ahead of another October rally, while others believe investors may need to brace for a slower climb to new all-time highs.