Bitcoin Drops to 4-Week Low as Glassnode Warns of Cycle ‘Exhaustion’

     

Profit-taking by long-term holders and slowing ETF inflows signal risk of deeper correction

Bitcoin fell to a four-week low of $108,700 on Thursday, raising fresh concerns about market exhaustion after onchain data showed heavy profit-taking by long-term holders and slowing institutional inflows.

According to Glassnode, long-term holders realized 3.4 million Bitcoin in profit, a level historically associated with cycle peaks. The slowdown in ETF demand following last week’s Federal Reserve rate cut has added to the bearish pressure.

BTC has now dropped below key support at $112,000, hovering close to levels seen in early September when it briefly hit $107,500. Analysts warn that another round of stop-loss selling could accelerate losses.

“This comes at a time when many are positioned for a Q4 rally – making the bigger surprise not a surge higher, but a correction instead,” said 10x Research head Markus Thielen.

Glassnode flags cooling phase ahead

Glassnode noted that profit-taking has exceeded 90% of moved coins three separate times during the current cycle, a pattern typically seen at market tops. The firm said this raises the likelihood of Bitcoin entering a cooling phase.

Selling at a loss sparks concern

Thielen highlighted further risks in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which shows some Bitcoin holders are now selling at a loss. While SOPR dips below 1 can signal rebounds in bull markets, rejections around that level often confirm downside in bearish phases.

Short-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) is also nearing zero, a level that could trigger liquidations as newer investors exit quickly to avoid deeper losses.

Analysts split on outlook

Glassnode warned that without renewed demand from institutions and long-term holders, Bitcoin risks further downside. Thielen echoed a neutral stance, saying BTC must reclaim $115,000 to restore momentum.

However, Strategy chair Michael Saylor maintained a bullish outlook, predicting Bitcoin will resume gains toward year-end as macroeconomic pressures ease.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $109,645, down 6.5% over the past week.