Bitcoin ETF inflows boost Uptober momentum with $3.2B surge

Bitcoin ETF inflows Uptober surge to record highs

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US kicked off October with massive inflows, reflecting renewed market confidence. Bitcoin ETF inflows Uptober reached $3.24 billion last week, nearly matching the record $3.38 billion from November 2024, according to SoSoValue data.

This surge marks a strong rebound from the $902 million in outflows seen a week earlier. Analysts link this turnaround to growing expectations of another US interest rate cut, which boosted sentiment toward risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETF inflows drive renewed investor optimism

According to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev, lower interest rate expectations have triggered a shift in sentiment. “At current run-rates, Q4 flows could retire over 100,000 BTC from circulation – more than double new issuance,” Kalchev said.

He added that ETF absorption is increasing while long-term holder distribution is slowing, creating stronger technical support for Bitcoin. This trend may help stabilize BTC prices near key levels, setting the stage for continued growth.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs, all-time chart, weekly. Source: Sosovalue

Uptober gains strengthen Bitcoin’s bullish outlook

The $3.2 billion inflows briefly pushed Bitcoin’s price above $123,996 on Friday, the highest since mid-August. Analysts now see potential for a sustained breakout if momentum continues.

BTC/USD, 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said Bitcoin’s move above $120,000 could lead to “a very quick rise” toward the $150,000 all-time high before the end of 2025.

Analysts predict early-Q4 breakout amid ETF momentum

Kalchev noted that Bitcoin ETFs now serve as the market’s “clearest sentiment barometer.” He said Uptober is showing signs of an early-Q4 breakout, powered by strong ETF inflows and favorable macro conditions.

Still, Bitcoin’s momentum may depend on upcoming events, including US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and the release of FOMC meeting minutes. Investors are also awaiting the delayed US jobs report, which could shape short-term market direction.

October remains Bitcoin’s strongest seasonal month

Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s best-performing months. Data from CoinGlass shows average monthly returns of about 20% in October, 46% in November, and 4% in December.