Bitcoin price prediction hits 50% odds of $140K
Bitcoin price prediction 2025 shows 50% odds for $140K rise
Bitcoin has a 50% chance of surpassing $140,000 by the end of October, according to simulations run by economist Timothy Peterson. The model, based on the past decade of Bitcoin data, suggests this target aligns with Bitcoin’s typical October performance.
Peterson shared on X that “there is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140K,” adding that “there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136K.” At the start of October, Bitcoin traded near $122,032, down slightly from its recent record of $126,200 set earlier in the week, according to CoinMarketCap.
The simulation implies that roughly half of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already occurred. Peterson said the model uses Bitcoin’s daily price data from 2015 to capture the market’s repetitive trends and volatility.
Data-driven Bitcoin forecast avoids emotion
Peterson emphasized that his Bitcoin price prediction 2025 results come from “hundreds of simulations based purely on real data, not human emotion or biased opinion.” He added that each projection “follows price changes consistent with Bitcoin’s historical volatility and rhythm.”
Bitcoin started October at around $116,500, meaning a climb to $140,000 would mark a 20.17% monthly gain – close to Bitcoin’s historical October average of 20.75%, per CoinGlass.
Peterson explained that the forecast cuts through “bias and noise” often found in short-term sentiment. He described it as “a clear, probability-based picture of where Bitcoin’s value is most likely to go.”
Still, Bitcoin has often deviated from expectations, showing that even high-confidence data-driven predictions can miss short-term market swings.
Analysts stay bullish on Bitcoin performance
Broader sentiment across the crypto market remains optimistic. Following Bitcoin’s new all-time high earlier this week, several analysts anticipate another upward move.
Crypto trader Jelle said on X that Bitcoin is retesting its previous highs and could continue rising, claiming “it’s definitely over for bears.” Similarly, analyst Matthew Hyland noted that “the pressure is building,” hinting at potential upside momentum.
Peterson, however, noted that short-term markets are not random but “cyclical in liquidity, sentiment, and positioning.” He highlighted October’s importance for institutional investors as it coincides with Q3 rebalancing, fiscal year planning, and year-end fund reporting periods.
