Bitcoin Q4 Peak Predictions Ignore Statistical Reality, Says Analyst
PlanC argues halving cycles are insufficient data and calls Q4 top a “self-fulfilling prophecy”
Bitcoin traders betting on a cycle-high price in the final quarter of 2025 may be misinterpreting market data, according to analyst PlanC.
In an X post on Friday, PlanC said there is “no statistical or fundamental reason” for Bitcoin to hit a peak this year, warning that traders relying on past halving cycles are overestimating their predictive value.
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability,” he wrote, comparing the logic to assuming a coin toss outcome must repeat simply because it has occurred before.
Q4 strength may be psychological, not structural
PlanC noted that while Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter returns have averaged 85% since 2013, the correlation with halving cycles is weak in today’s market environment.
He argued that Bitcoin’s dynamics are now shaped by treasury accumulation from public companies and heavy inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, not just mining supply shocks.
“There is zero fundamental reason – other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy – for the peak to occur in Q4 2025,” he said.
Analysts split on 2025 vs. 2026 cycle top
Market forecasts remain divided. Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently said there is a “greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the $140K-$150K range this year before entering a bear market in 2026.”
Others see the bull cycle lasting longer. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has argued that 2026 will remain an up year, while more aggressive forecasts – including Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett – put Bitcoin’s year-end target as high as $250,000.
The divide highlights growing uncertainty over whether Bitcoin’s traditional cycle patterns still apply in a market increasingly shaped by institutional adoption.
