Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle ‘Very Likely’ to Continue, Says Gemini Executive Amid Growing Institutional Influence

     

Bitcoin Cycle Driven by Human Emotion, Not Just Market Mechanics

Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle – often linked to its halving events – is “very likely” to continue in some form, according to Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific region at crypto exchange Gemini.

Speaking with Cointelegraph during Token2049 in Singapore, Ahmed said the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market behavior is largely a reflection of human psychology rather than purely economic or technical factors.

“The reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” Ahmed explained. “It ultimately stems from people getting really excited, overextending themselves, and then you see a crash – followed by a correction back to equilibrium.”

Institutional Players May Soften Bitcoin’s Volatility

While acknowledging the market’s emotional drivers, Ahmed also pointed to increasing institutional participation as a stabilizing force.

“You’ll see some of the volatility flag off,” he noted, “but you’ll still see some sort of a cycle, because ultimately, it’s driven by human emotion.”

This perspective adds to the ongoing debate within the crypto industry about whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle – typically marked by periods of rapid growth followed by correction – remains valid as the market matures.

Analysts Debate the Timing of Bitcoin’s Peak

On Aug. 21, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode suggested that Bitcoin’s current price movements may still be tracking its historical four-year halving pattern.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Rekt Capital proposed that if the 2024 cycle mirrors the 2020 one, Bitcoin’s market peak could occur in October 2025 – roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving.

“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt said, noting that Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter since 2013, with an average return of 79.39%, according to CoinGlass.

Bitcoin Nears All-Time Highs as Market Enters Q4

At the start of October, Bitcoin (BTC) surged 11.5% in one week, reaching $123,850 – just shy of its $124,100 all-time high from Aug. 14, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Despite differing opinions on the exact timing of Bitcoin’s next peak, optimism remains widespread. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory:

“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan said. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.”

Outlook: Cycles May Evolve, But Psychology Endures

While market conditions, institutional adoption, and global macro factors continue to evolve, experts agree that investor psychology remains central to Bitcoin’s cyclical nature. Whether future cycles will be shorter, longer, or less volatile, the underlying emotional rhythm of fear and greed appears here to stay.