Bitwise CIO Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run in 2026, Breaking the 4-Year Cycle

     

Matt Hougan challenges halving-based models, sees multi-year growth amid institutional adoption and macro shifts

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan is defying traditional crypto market expectations, forecasting a strong Bitcoin rally in 2026 rather than a cycle peak in 2025. In a video shared on X, Hougan stated, “I bet 2026 is an up year,” suggesting a more sustained, long-term uptrend for BTC.

His view contrasts with the dominant belief in the four-year halving cycle, where price peaks typically occur 12 to 18 months post-halving. The debate around the cycle’s relevance has intensified in recent months.

Halving effect fading as macro and institutional forces take over

Hougan argues that the Bitcoin halving cycle is weakening in its influence. As each halving reduces the block reward by a smaller absolute amount, its market impact diminishes over time.

He also highlighted macroeconomic drivers, particularly the possibility of U.S. interest rate cuts, which could redirect capital into risk assets like Bitcoin. In addition, improving regulation and growing institutional involvement are reducing market volatility and “blow-up risk,” Hougan noted.

However, he warned of emerging risks, including the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies – firms buying BTC via debt or equity. If overleveraged, these companies could amplify downside risk. VanEck has echoed similar concerns.

Still, Hougan remains optimistic: “I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he said.

🚨DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE???

The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan says we’re going higher in 2026.

Early profit takers will be left behind!!!

Full break down with @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan in comments👇 pic.twitter.com/Ffn9penapN

— Kyle Chassé / DD🐸 (@kyle_chasse) July 25, 2025

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju offered a similar take, declaring the four-year cycle “dead” due to shifting whale behavior and accelerating institutional adoption.

October cycle peak still in play, say traditionalists

Despite the contrarian outlook, some analysts stick with the halving model. Rekt Capital, a popular crypto market analyst, believes Bitcoin could top out in October 2025 – 550 days after the April halving – if the 2020 cycle repeats.

Others like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee remain ultra-bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Calling it “Digital Gold,” Lee predicts Bitcoin could hit $1 million eventually, with $200,000–$250,000 in reach as it eats into gold’s market share.

Lee cited positive regulation, including the GENIUS Act, as supporting Bitcoin’s rise as a legitimate asset class.