Harvard Economist Admits Misjudging Bitcoin’s Path to $100K
Kenneth Rogoff acknowledges major miscalculations on Bitcoin’s trajectory
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who once declared Bitcoin was far more likely to collapse to $100 than ever reach $100,000, has admitted he was wrong on several fronts. Writing on X this week, Rogoff reflected on his 2018 CNBC appearance, noting how the cryptocurrency’s rise has defied his expectations.
A former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and author of Our Dollar, Your Problem, Rogoff originally argued that government crackdowns would sink Bitcoin’s price. Instead, Bitcoin surged past $100,000 in December 2024 and has since gained over 80% to reach new all-time highs.
“I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” Rogoff said, reiterating that his skepticism toward crypto remains intact.
Bitcoin challenges fiat dominance in unexpected ways
Rogoff also admitted he underestimated Bitcoin’s growing role in global commerce. “Second, I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transactions medium of choice in the twenty-trillion-dollar global underground economy,” he wrote.
Despite his concerns, Bitcoin has evolved into a hedge against inflation in countries plagued by collapsing local currencies. Meanwhile, data from Chainalysis shows that illicit activity tied to cryptocurrencies accounted for around $50 billion in 2024 – less than 1% of the amount laundered through traditional cash systems.
His third oversight, Rogoff said, was failing to predict how regulators themselves might openly hold large sums of cryptocurrency despite the clear conflicts of interest.
Crypto industry embraces the admission as validation
The crypto community quickly seized on Rogoff’s comments as a symbolic victory. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan remarked that Rogoff “failed to imagine that a decentralized project, powered by people rather than institutions, could succeed at scale.”
FalconX researcher David Lawant went further, thanking Rogoff for his earlier writings: “His book The Curse of Cash was so terrible that it pushed me to Bitcoin,” he quipped.
VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, added Rogoff to his list of Bitcoin’s most vocal critics, ranking him ninth. “He wrote Bitcoin’s obituary too early from within his own echo chamber,” Sigel said.
Ironically, Harvard Management Company – the university’s $53 billion endowment fund – recently disclosed a $116 million investment in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, highlighting how even institutions closest to Rogoff are embracing Bitcoin’s rise.
