Solana Founder Warns Bitcoin Has Until 2030 to Prepare for Quantum Threats

     

Anatoly Yakovenko warns of a “50/50” chance of a quantum breakthrough within five years

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has sounded the alarm for the Bitcoin community, urging faster action to prepare for quantum threats that could undermine the network’s security within the next decade.

Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko said he sees a “50/50” chance that a major quantum computing breakthrough could arrive by 2030 – and potentially as soon as the next five years.

“I feel 50/50 within five years, there is a quantum breakthrough,” he said in a YouTube video published Friday. “We should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme.”

Yakovenko pointed to rapid advances in artificial intelligence and related technologies as evidence that scientific progress may outpace expectations. “It is astounding,” he said. “I would try to encourage folks to speed things up.”

Cybersecurity experts say threat may emerge quickly

Quantum computers are widely expected to one day break current encryption standards, creating a significant risk for blockchain users. Bitcoin relies on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) to secure wallets, a method currently unbreakable by classical computers but potentially vulnerable to quantum attacks.

David Carvalho, founder of Naoris Protocol, said in June that quantum systems could “plausibly rip” through Bitcoin’s cryptography in less than five years. However, migrating a blockchain to post-quantum security would require a hard fork – a controversial and complex change that many in the Bitcoin community oppose.

Bitcoiners aren’t as concerned about threat

Some prominent Bitcoiners, however, remain unconvinced of the urgency.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back said current quantum systems pose no credible threat today, estimating the timeline for a breakthrough at “maybe 20 years.”

Meanwhile, Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, argued that while the risk is real, it is not imminent. “I think it is a real risk, but the timeline is probably still a decade away, and I would say everything else will fail before Bitcoin fails,” Mow said in June.

The divide highlights a growing debate between blockchain innovators pushing for proactive defenses and Bitcoin traditionalists who see quantum computing as a distant challenge.